State of the Women's College Basketball belt
Updated November 14, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 79% | 77% | 55% | 46% |
| Tennessee | — | — | 22% | 12% |
| Princeton | 21% | 16% | 13% | 11% |
| Florida Gulf Coast | — | — | — | 10% |
| St. John's | — | — | — | 9% |
| TCU | — | — | — | 2% |
| George Mason | — | 6% | 3% | 2% |
| James Madison | — | — | 2% | 2% |
| Rutgers | — | — | — | 2% |
| Longwood | — | — | — | 1% |
| Oklahoma State | — | — | — | <1% |
| Washington | — | — | 2% | <1% |
| Georgia Tech | — | — | 3% | <1% |
| Winthrop | — | — | — | <1% |
| Cal Poly | — | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Cal State Northridge | — | — | — | <1% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (March 6, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. UCLA keeps it to the end in 2.6% of runs. 26 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina | 3.5% | 1878 | |
| 2 | UCLA | 2.6% | 1890 | |
| 3 | UConn | 2.6% | 1875 | |
| 4 | LSU | 2.5% | 1776 | |
| 5 | Texas | 2.1% | 1849 | |
| 6 | Ohio State | 2.1% | 1721 | |
| 7 | Princeton | 1.8% | 1743 | |
| 8 | Kentucky | 1.6% | 1709 | |
| 9 | Iowa | 1.6% | 1739 | |
| 10 | Minnesota | 1.5% | 1706 | |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 1.4% | 1739 | |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 1.4% | 1744 | |
| 13 | Michigan State | 1.4% | 1679 | |
| 14 | Georgia | 1.4% | 1626 | |
| 15 | Vanderbilt | 1.4% | 1732 | |
| 16 | Columbia | 1.4% | 1703 | |
| 17 | Duke | 1.3% | 1781 | |
| 18 | Michigan | 1.3% | 1771 | |
| 19 | Oregon | 1.3% | 1664 | |
| 20 | Maryland | 1.2% | 1687 | |
| 21 | Harvard | 1.2% | 1645 | |
| 22 | Alabama | 1.2% | 1666 | |
| 23 | Florida | 1.1% | 1588 | |
| 24 | NC State | 1.1% | 1688 | |
| 25 | Ole Miss | 1.1% | 1683 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA Holder | 1890 |
| 2 | South Carolina | 1878 |
| 3 | UConn | 1875 |
| 4 | Texas | 1849 |
| 5 | Duke | 1781 |
| 6 | LSU | 1776 |
| 7 | Michigan | 1771 |
| 8 | TCU | 1763 |
| 9 | Louisville | 1755 |
| 10 | West Virginia | 1747 |
| 11 | Notre Dame | 1744 |
| 12 | Princeton | 1743 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 1739 |
| 14 | Iowa | 1739 |
| 15 | Vanderbilt | 1732 |
| 16 | Ohio State | 1721 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 80 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.