State of the College Basketball belt
Updated November 12, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | — | 51% | 37% | 34% |
| UConn | 80% | 29% | 13% | 13% |
| Colorado State | — | — | 14% | 11% |
| Florida | — | — | — | 9% |
| Ohio State | 20% | 17% | 12% | 6% |
| Duke | — | — | 15% | 6% |
| Vanderbilt | — | — | — | 6% |
| Iowa | — | — | — | 4% |
| UT Arlington | — | — | — | 3% |
| New Orleans | — | — | — | 3% |
| Marshall | — | — | 2% | 2% |
| UMBC | — | — | 4% | 1% |
| Rider | — | — | — | <1% |
| East Texas A&M | — | — | — | <1% |
| Prairie View A&M | — | 3% | <1% | <1% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (March 7, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. UConn keeps it to the end in 3.5% of runs. 21 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UConn | 3.5% | 1761 | |
| 2 | Villanova | 2.1% | 1616 | |
| 3 | Houston | 2.1% | 1756 | |
| 4 | Florida | 2.0% | 1755 | |
| 5 | St. John's | 1.9% | 1743 | |
| 6 | Xavier | 1.7% | 1547 | |
| 7 | Texas Tech | 1.7% | 1682 | |
| 8 | Auburn | 1.6% | 1651 | |
| 9 | Arkansas | 1.6% | 1686 | |
| 10 | Alabama | 1.6% | 1716 | |
| 11 | Gonzaga | 1.5% | 1738 | |
| 12 | Arizona | 1.4% | 1773 | |
| 13 | Texas A&M | 1.3% | 1633 | |
| 14 | Michigan State | 1.3% | 1728 | |
| 15 | TCU | 1.3% | 1629 | |
| 16 | Iowa State | 1.3% | 1687 | |
| 17 | North Carolina | 1.2% | 1660 | |
| 18 | Vanderbilt | 1.2% | 1684 | |
| 19 | Illinois | 1.1% | 1697 | |
| 20 | Duke | 1.1% | 1786 | |
| 21 | DePaul | 1.1% | 1514 | |
| 22 | Purdue | 1.0% | 1688 | |
| 23 | Missouri | 0.9% | 1581 | |
| 24 | Tennessee | 0.9% | 1691 | |
| 25 | Baylor | 0.9% | 1582 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | 1792 |
| 2 | Duke | 1786 |
| 3 | Arizona | 1773 |
| 4 | UConn Holder | 1761 |
| 5 | Houston | 1756 |
| 6 | Florida | 1755 |
| 7 | St. John's | 1743 |
| 8 | Gonzaga | 1738 |
| 9 | Michigan State | 1728 |
| 10 | Alabama | 1716 |
| 11 | Illinois | 1697 |
| 12 | Utah State | 1696 |
| 13 | Virginia | 1696 |
| 14 | Tennessee | 1691 |
| 15 | Purdue | 1688 |
| 16 | Iowa State | 1687 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 90 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.